An intelligence forecast being prepared for the next incoming U.S president on future global risks envisions a steady decline in U.S. dominance in the coming decades, as the world is reshaped by globalization, battered by climate change, and destabilized by regional upheavals over shortages of food, water and energy.
The report, also concludes that the one key area of continued U.S. superiority, military power, will 'be the least significant' asset in the increasingly competitive world of the future, because 'nobody is going to attack the U.S with massive conventional force.'
The U.S. will remain the preeminent power, but that American dominance will be much diminished said the report. It is reported that the U.S leadership is eroding at an accelerating pace in political, economic and arguably, cultural arenas.
The 2025 report will lay out what is called the 'dynamics, the dimensions, the drivers' that will shape the world for the next U.S administration and beyond. The predicted shift toward a less U.S centric world will come at a time when the planet is facing a growing environmental crisis, caused largely by climate change.
The report also forecasted that by 2025, droughts, food shortages and scarcity of fresh water will plague large swaths of the globe, from northern China to the Horn of Africa. Floods and droughts will trigger mass migrations and political upheaval in many parts of the developing world. But among industrialized states, declining birthrates will create new economic stresses as populations become grayer. In China, Japan and Europe, the ratio of working adults to seniors begins to approach one to three.
The report also predicts plummeting influence for the United Nations, the World Bank and a host of other international organizations that have helped maintain political and economic stability since World War II. It is unclear what new institutions can fill the void the report concluded.
The report was prepared by Thomas Fingar, the U.S. intelligence community's top analyst.
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
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