Socionomic theory

I read an interesting subject. I found it to be mind provoking. It provokes a sense of inevitability.

I read a theory of social prediction called 'socionomics' by a leading exponent, Robert R. Prechter, Jr. The theory applies the Elliott Wave Principle, best known as a branch of technical analysis of investment markets, to predicting the tenor of social events in collective human endeavor.

Socionomic theory holds that social outcomes are a result of collective social mood, not the other way around. In this regard, it reveals that people don’t become collectively pessimistic because of war, they go to war because they have become collectively pessimistic.

The theory further states that the movement from optimism to pessimism to optimism is endogenous. It does not respond to external stimuli because it is not self-reinforcing. Otherwise, as things get better people would get more optimistic, causing things to get better, causing people to get more optimistic.

It's quite complicated especially when the theory comes together with economics. Robert R. Prechter Jr. and his colleagues have produced numerous analyses that show how social mood, measured inferentially by the stock market, changes before the tenor of social events changes.

Well, wars are fought because of economic reasons and wars generates economic stimulation. Whatever it is, it's an interesting topic to read.